Bibi's Comeback

When Benjamin Netanyahu was elected prime minister in May, 1996 I walked around with a sick feeling in my stomach for weeks, if not months. Those were the halcyon days of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, when it looked as if we really were going to cobble together an agreement that would officially put an end to the conflict. I believed then that even Yitzhak Rabin's assassination by a right-wing religious fanatic could not stop the tremendous momentum of progress and optimism that was in the air everywhere, despite a number of horrendous terror attacks. When Bibi came to power on a wave of cynically manipulated fear politics everything grew dark. He was inexperienced, confrontational, sleazy, divisive and arrogant. He froze whatever remained of the chances to conclude an agreement, sowed animosity amongst Israelis and angered our closest allies. It was three years of frustration and cringing embarrassment; his humiliation at the polls by Ehud Barak in 1999 sent him packing in so much disgrace that he abandoned the leadership of his party and disappeared from politics. Good riddance.

Unfortunately, he's back in the driver's seat, claiming to be a better leader in light of his experience. Just the image of his puffy face and slightly sneering smile makes my stomach turn but I can't say I'm as upset this time as I was thirteen years ago. Not because he has redeemed himself in any way or has promised anything significant, but because I no longer feel optimistic about the peace process. What can he screw up? The Palestinians are so divided amongst themselves that they are incapable of even sitting down to negotiate with us because there is no leader in their camp who commands the respect and the mandate of the entire Palestinian people. Bibi's shenanigans were peanuts compared to the damage done by George Bush, who insisted that our neighbors hold democratic elections, bringing Hamas legally into power when so many moderate Palestinians voted for them after being fed up with the corruption and inefficacy of Fatah. There's a civil war going on over there - there's no one to talk to at the moment.

So I'm somewhat apathetic this time around. It looks like Bibi will ultimately form a narrow, right wing/religious coalition. From past experience, these kinds of partnerships do not usually last very long so hopefully they will eat each other alive. Add to that combination the imminent pressure that will come from Washington. Obama, Hillary Clinton and George Mitchell have no doubt read up on what a pain-in-the-ass Bibi was the last time around and will not tolerate being given the run around. I am personally willing to suffer a little international pressure on Israel to get things moving, providing the Palestinians deliver the goods. It is generally acknowledged that as radical Islam gets stronger in the region, the window on the two-state solution is growing smaller and smaller. There's a dire imperative to move ahead with the only really viable solution for us and them - two states for two people. This is the consensus today in Israel, yet Bibi is not even willing to articulate those words. The sooner he's out, the better.

But what's the alternative? Tzipi Livni and the Israeli left are going to have to work very hard to prove, from the opposition, that they can do it better. They are going to have to resurrect the very dead idea that a Palestinian state is good for Israel and find some very creative ways to convince us that they can make it happen. They will need to be pounding Bibi and his policies relentlessly amid all the hysteria about the Iranian threat. It is a near-impossible task.

In truth, though, I think that if the Palestinians could unify their ranks and present a sane, forward-looking face to the future then the citizens of Israel would send Bibi to the gulag. The fact is that when Israelis were feeling hopeful about peace in the 1990s they elected Yitzhak Rabin, and then later Ehud Barak to negotiate an agreement, fully aware that painful comromises would have to be made. As long as there's no viable partner on the other side, Bibi can't do all that much damage to our peace aspirations. Instead, he can devote his energies to denigrating the justice system, selling our national soul to the religious parties, destroying what's left of the economy and, in general, nurturing the slow breakdown of Israeli democracy.

Please, let it be over soon.