After Elections

I'm considering cancelling my subscription to the newspaper I read so religiously every morning because I forsee lots of bad news for Israel in the immediate future. A little tzimtzum might be in order - a period of withdrawal, surrounded by texts and fully occupied by writing about things that have absolutely nothing to do with modern Israel.

The right wing was undeniably victorious in these elections, confirming a strong trend in Israeli society whose flames were fanned by the recent war in Gaza. Just like in 2001 when Ariel Sharon came to power after the outbreak of the second intifada, Israelis in 2009 are in need of a big, bad tough guy who's going to twirl his six shooters and make the Arabs quake in their boots. The surprise with big, bad Arik was his recognition that the view looks different from the driver's seat and his subsequent transformation from the father of the settlement movement to the disengager from Gaza. Sadly, there is no chance that Bibi Netanyahu will surprise us if and when he becomes the next prime minister, which appears imminent. Apart from the fact that he is insincere, sleazy and lacking an ounce of integrity, his party platform still stubbornly refuses to recognize the Israeli interest in the establishment of a Palestinian state despite years of opinion polls indicating this is now the consensus. The right, including Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu and the religious parties, wants its pound of flesh from the Palestinians in the form of a humiliating, long-term agreement that will lead nowhere - except to more hostilities.

Obama is not going to like this and will no doubt put the clamps on Netanyahu, possibly creating a severe crisis between Israel and our staunchest ally (if Obama has read what Bill Clinton and Dennis Ross had to say about Bibi he cannot be optimistic about working with him). The situation will only be exacerbated if Yvet Lieberman and his ilk are brought into the coalition, flying the flag of racism and facism under the flimsy disguise of nationalism. His party Yisrael Beitenu formerly appealed mostly to immigrants from the former Soviet Union, who are not known for their deep understanding of the importance of democracy. The most frightening trend of this election was the meteoric rise of Leiberman, thanks to the support of many veteran Israelis who are drawn to his no-nonsense approach, even though it flagrantly violates the basic principles of any democratic society. This man is extremely dangerous and the only way to eradicate the phenomenon that he represents is to keep him out of the coalition - to boycott his party as if it were a leper poised to infect all of Israeli society. With a staggering fifteen seats, fat chance of that ever happening.

The left, including Tzipi Livni, has crashed and burned. We are wounded and bewildered, wandering around in a daze. There is only one option for Kadima, Labor and Meretz and that is to categorically refuse to sit in a government headed by Bibi Netanyahu. If these parties respect themselves they will wait patiently in the opposition and use the time to rehabilitate themselves. We are going to need them because a heavily right-wing coalition including Likud, Leiberman, Shas, HaBayit Hayehudi and the other ultra-orthodox parties will consume itself within one to two years and we will see another chapter of the same cycle that brought us Bibi in 1996 and booted him out in 1999. Like big, bad Arik once said, politics in Israel is like a wheel: sometimes you're up, and sometimes you're down.

The left is lying on the floor on the verge of unconsciousness right now, a hard visual image to stomach when I think of where we were in 1999. Ehud Barak was prime minister, determined to reach an agreement with the Palestinians and the coalition was comprised of the brightest, most progressive Israeli politicians on the spectrum. It was the peace process dream team and one like it will probably never be elected in Israel again. The breakdown of negotiations at Camp David in August, 2000 was the quintessential example of the Palestinians never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity, despite all the negative things that have been said about Barak in the wake of his abysmal failure. Would they turn the clock back if it was possible? I wish I could say 'yes' unwaveringly but I'm not sure that would be the case. Our rivals in this conflict operate according to a different set of rules than we do and part of the problem has been our inability to convince them to speak our language. Now they will have an Israeli government that speaks in a language they will understand very clearly. If I thought that could be a step in the process bringing us nearer to an agreement I could perhaps tolerate another round of Bibi, but I am completely and utterly without cause for optimism.